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Čáslav vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Čáslav
Čáslav
CANC
15:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
5/15/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 24Stadion Pod hrádkem

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Čáslav72%
×Draw15%
Sparta Kutná Hora13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čáslav
2.97
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.23

Čáslav creates 141% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 27 away

creates per match

Čáslav
2.01
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Čáslav
1.39
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Čáslav+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čáslav ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Čáslav or draw
87%
Čáslav or Sparta Kutná Hora
85%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
28%

Winning margin

Čáslav wins by 2+
52%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Čáslav 1+ goals
95%
Čáslav 2+ goals
79%
Čáslav 3+ goals
56%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
71%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
35%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Čáslav (draw refunded)
84%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čáslav at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čáslav attack 2.01 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.97

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Čáslav defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Čáslav scores more
72%
level
15%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
13%

Čáslav at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Čáslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Čáslav vs Sparta Kutná Hora — Match Preview

Čáslav face Sparta Kutná Hora on May 15, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Čáslav host Sparta Kutná Hora at Stadion Pod hrádkem.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.