Sparta Katowice vs Górnik Polkowice

Sparta Katowice

Preview

16:00

Górnik Polkowice

5/22/2027

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 33

Big match

39%

Sparta Katowice

model favours

39%25%35%

Górnik Polkowice score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

52%

over 2.5 goals

56%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sparta Katowice39%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta KatowiceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.34

Sparta Katowice

1.42

Górnik Polkowice

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

1.55

1.13

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sparta Katowice

1.50

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Sparta Katowice

1.13

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Katowice+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Katowice ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sparta Katowice or draw

65%

Sparta Katowice or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

61%

Winning margin

Sparta Katowice wins by 2+

18%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sparta Katowice 1+ goals

76%

Sparta Katowice 2+ goals

41%

Sparta Katowice 3+ goals

17%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

74%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

39%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sparta Katowice (draw refunded)

52%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Katowice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Katowice attack 1.50 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Sparta Katowice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sparta Katowice scores more

39%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

35%

Sparta Katowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sparta Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 83% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches
67% of Górnik Polkowice’s matches go over 2.5 goals
Top-of-the-table clash — Sparta Katowice 3 vs Górnik Polkowice 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Katowice

WWDWW

Polkowice

WWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff