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Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice
S. Lusiusz 88' (pen)
D. Paszek 79' (pen)
M. Mazurek 60'
R. Kulinski 49'
3/13/2026III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 22Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice36%
×Draw26%
Sparta Katowice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.33
Sparta Katowice
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.72
Sparta Katowice
1.53

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.26
Sparta Katowice
0.94

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Sparta Katowice+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Sparta Katowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
61%
Górnik Polkowice or Sparta Katowice
74%
Draw or Sparta Katowice
64%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
16%
Sparta Katowice wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
38%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
15%
Sparta Katowice 1+ goals
75%
Sparta Katowice 2+ goals
41%
Sparta Katowice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
48%
Sparta Katowice (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Sparta Katowice away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Sparta Katowice defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sparta Katowice attack 1.53 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
36%
level
26%
Sparta Katowice scores more
39%

Sparta Katowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sparta Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
R. Kulinski
60'
M. Mazurek
79'
D. PaszekPenalty
88'
S. LusiuszPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Sparta Katowice

Sparta Katowice beat Górnik Polkowice 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 13, 2026.

Goals: R. Kulinski (49'), M. Mazurek (60'), D. Paszek (79' pen), S. Lusiusz (88' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.