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Sparta Katowice vs Górnik Polkowice — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Sparta Katowice
Sparta Katowice
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
G. Glapka 87'
R. Wozniak 84'
8/27/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 5Stadion Rapid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sparta Katowice39%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Katowice
1.42
Górnik Polkowice
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sparta Katowice
1.50
Górnik Polkowice
1.55

allows per match

Sparta Katowice
1.13
Górnik Polkowice
1.33

finishing

Sparta Katowice+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Katowice ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sparta Katowice or draw
65%
Sparta Katowice or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
61%

Winning margin

Sparta Katowice wins by 2+
18%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sparta Katowice 1+ goals
76%
Sparta Katowice 2+ goals
41%
Sparta Katowice 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
39%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sparta Katowice (draw refunded)
52%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Katowice at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Katowice attack 1.50 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Sparta Katowice defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sparta Katowice scores more
39%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
35%

Sparta Katowice at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sparta Katowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'
R. Wozniak
87'
G. Glapka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Sparta Katowice 2–0 Górnik Polkowice

Sparta Katowice beat Górnik Polkowice 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 27, 2025.

Goals: R. Wozniak (84'), G. Glapka (87').

The match was played at Stadion Rapid in Katowice.