Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spal vs Pescara — League #942 2026

Spal
Spal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pescara
Pescara
10/18/2024League #942League #942 · Girone B - 10Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spal21%
×Draw30%
Pescara49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
0.71
Pescara
1.25

Pescara creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spal
0.75
Pescara
1.00

allows per match

Spal
1.50
Pescara
0.67

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Pescara+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Pescara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–118%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Spal or draw
51%
Spal or Pescara
70%
Draw or Pescara
79%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
6%
Pescara wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
51%
Spal 2+ goals
16%
Spal 3+ goals
4%
Pescara 1+ goals
71%
Pescara 2+ goals
36%
Pescara 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
30%
Pescara (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 0.75 + Pescara defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Pescara attack 1.00 + Spal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spal scores more
21%
level
30%
Pescara scores more
49%

Pescara at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spal vs Pescara

Pescara beat Spal 1-0 in League #942 on October 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.