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Pescara vs Spal — League #942 2026

Pescara
Pescara
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Spal
Spal
2/13/2024League #942League #942 · Girone B - 26Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pescara45%
×Draw24%
Spal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pescara
1.67
Spal
1.33

Pescara creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Pescara
1.33
Spal
1.00

allows per match

Pescara
1.67
Spal
2.00

finishing

Pescara+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Pescara or draw
69%
Pescara or Spal
76%
Draw or Spal
55%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+
24%
Spal wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals
81%
Pescara 2+ goals
50%
Pescara 3+ goals
23%
Spal 1+ goals
74%
Spal 2+ goals
38%
Spal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)
60%
Spal (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Spal away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.33 + Spal defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Spal attack 1.00 + Pescara defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pescara scores more
45%
level
24%
Spal scores more
31%

Pescara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pescara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pescara 1 – 2 Spal

Spal beat Pescara 2-1 in League #942 on February 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.