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Spal vs Hellas Verona — Serie A 2018

Spal
Spal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona
1/5/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 18Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spal34%
×Draw26%
Hellas Verona40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
1.26
Hellas Verona
1.38

Hellas Verona creates 10% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 102 away

creates per match

Spal
0.95
Hellas Verona
1.02

allows per match

Spal
1.74
Hellas Verona
1.57

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Hellas Verona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spal or draw
60%
Spal or Hellas Verona
74%
Draw or Hellas Verona
66%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
15%
Hellas Verona wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
72%
Spal 2+ goals
36%
Spal 3+ goals
13%
Hellas Verona 1+ goals
75%
Hellas Verona 2+ goals
40%
Hellas Verona 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
46%
Hellas Verona (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

Hellas Verona away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 0.95 + Hellas Verona defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.26

Hellas Verona attack 1.02 + Spal defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Spal scores more
34%
level
26%
Hellas Verona scores more
40%

Hellas Verona at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Spal 0–2 Hellas Verona

Hellas Verona beat Spal 2-0 in Serie A on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.