Hellas Verona 3–0 Spal: Result & Stats | Serie A

Hellas Verona

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Spal

7/29/2020

Serie A · Round 37Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hellas Verona44%

×Draw26%

Spal30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hellas VeronaExpected goals in this matchSpal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.19

Hellas Verona

1.50

Spal

1.19

Hellas Verona creates 26% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 38 away

1.23

creates per match

0.92

1.46

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hellas Verona

1.23

Spal

0.92

allows per match

Hellas Verona

1.46

Spal

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hellas Verona+0.00on par

Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Verona ↓

Spal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hellas Verona or draw

70%

Hellas Verona or Spal

74%

Draw or Spal

56%

Winning margin

Hellas Verona wins by 2+

22%

Spal wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hellas Verona 1+ goals

78%

Hellas Verona 2+ goals

44%

Hellas Verona 3+ goals

19%

Spal 1+ goals

70%

Spal 2+ goals

33%

Spal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hellas Verona (draw refunded)

60%

Spal (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Verona at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 98 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Verona attack 1.23 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spal attack 0.92 + Hellas Verona defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hellas Verona scores more

44%

level

26%

Spal scores more

30%

Hellas Verona at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hellas Verona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff