Spal 1–2 Benevento: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Benevento

S. Esposito 10'

A. La Gumina 77'

R. Capellini 74'

11/12/2022

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Spal36%

×Draw27%

Benevento37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpalExpected goals in this matchBenevento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.27

Spal

1.23

Benevento

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 79 away

1.40

creates per match

1.24

1.30

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Spal

1.40

Benevento

1.24

allows per match

Spal

1.30

Benevento

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spal+0.00on par

Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Benevento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spal or draw

63%

Spal or Benevento

73%

Draw or Benevento

64%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+

15%

Benevento wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals

71%

Spal 2+ goals

35%

Spal 3+ goals

13%

Benevento 1+ goals

72%

Benevento 2+ goals

36%

Benevento 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)

49%

Benevento (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 57 matches

Benevento away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.40 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Benevento attack 1.24 + Spal defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Spal scores more

36%

level

27%

Benevento scores more

37%

Benevento at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

G. Letizia

Benevento · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

S. Esposito

12'

Lorenzo Dickmann

32'

Alessandro Murgia

34'

Riccardo CapelliniGoal cancelled

43'

Raffaele Celia

45'

Andrea La Mantia

46'

L. Valzania← A. La Mantia

58'

S. Rabbi← F. Maistro

58'

A. Tripaldelli← R. Celia

62'

Patryk Peda

64'

F. Forte← M. Leverbe

65'

A. Almici← G. Moncini

68'

Pasquale Schiattarella

69'

Kamil Glik

73'

E. Masciangelo← D. Foulon

74'

R. Capellini

77'

A. La Gumina↳ Diego Farias

81'

G. Tunjov← L. Dickmann

84'

I. Koutsoupias← Diego Farias

88'

Ilias Koutsoupias

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpalBenevento

Overview

39%Possession61%

6Total Shots21

1Corners7

16Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots21

2On Target5

3Off Target10

1Blocked6

2Inside Box11

4Outside Box10

Passing

39%Possession61%

337Total Passes509

268Accurate Passes439

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls17

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides2