Benevento 1–3 Spal: Result & Stats | Serie B

Benevento

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Spal

D. Foulon 37'

G. Moncini 66'

R. Celia 51'

M. Prati 33'

4/10/2023

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Benevento49%

×Draw26%

Spal24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchSpal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Benevento

1.50

Spal

0.97

Benevento creates 55% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

1.72

creates per match

0.89

1.05

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Benevento

1.72

Spal

0.89

allows per match

Benevento

1.05

Spal

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Spal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

76%

Benevento or Spal

74%

Draw or Spal

51%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

25%

Spal wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

78%

Benevento 2+ goals

44%

Benevento 3+ goals

19%

Spal 1+ goals

62%

Spal 2+ goals

25%

Spal 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

67%

Spal (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 79 matches

Spal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.72 + Spal defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.50

Spal attack 0.89 + Benevento defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Benevento scores more

49%

level

26%

Spal scores more

24%

Benevento at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Benevento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Arena

Spal · D

7.7

Match Events

15'

33'

35'

37'

47'

51'

56'

56'

K. Kubica← P. Schiattarella

57'

A. La Gumina← C. Pastina

61'

Biagio Meccariello

66'

G. Moncini↳ R. Nainggolan

73'

N. Karić← S. Pettinari

76'

N. Zanellato← R. Nainggolan

76'

S. Rabbi← G. Moncini

76'

G. Tunjov← F. Maistro

81'

Krzysztof Kubica

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeneventoSpal

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots19

4Corners6

14Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots19

4On Target6

5Off Target9

6Blocked4

8Inside Box13

7Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

347Total Passes313

256Accurate Passes234

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1