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Spal vs Atalanta — Serie A 2018

Spal
Spal
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Atalanta
Atalanta
8/25/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 1Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spal21%
×Draw23%
Atalanta56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
1.01
Atalanta
1.82

Atalanta creates 80% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 135 away

creates per match

Spal
0.95
Atalanta
1.91

allows per match

Spal
1.74
Atalanta
1.07

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Atalanta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spal or draw
44%
Spal or Atalanta
77%
Draw or Atalanta
79%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
7%
Atalanta wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
64%
Spal 2+ goals
27%
Spal 3+ goals
8%
Atalanta 1+ goals
84%
Atalanta 2+ goals
54%
Atalanta 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
27%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.07 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 0.95 + Atalanta defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Atalanta attack 1.91 + Spal defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spal scores more
21%
level
23%
Atalanta scores more
56%

Atalanta at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spal vs Atalanta

Atalanta beat Spal 3-2 in Serie A on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.