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Atalanta vs Spal — Serie A 2018

Atalanta
Atalanta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Spal
Spal
1/20/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 20Gewiss Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Atalanta57%
×Draw22%
Spal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atalanta
1.90
Spal
1.05

Atalanta creates 81% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atalanta
2.04
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Atalanta
1.19
Spal
1.76

finishing

Atalanta+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atalanta ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Atalanta or draw
79%
Atalanta or Spal
78%
Draw or Spal
43%

Winning margin

Atalanta wins by 2+
33%
Spal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atalanta 1+ goals
85%
Atalanta 2+ goals
56%
Atalanta 3+ goals
29%
Spal 1+ goals
65%
Spal 2+ goals
28%
Spal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atalanta (draw refunded)
73%
Spal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atalanta at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.76 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atalanta attack 2.04 + Spal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.90

Spal attack 0.92 + Atalanta defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atalanta scores more
57%
level
22%
Spal scores more
21%

Atalanta at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Atalanta 1–2 Spal

Spal beat Atalanta 2-1 in Serie A on January 20, 2020.

The match was played at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo.