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Spal vs Alessandria — Serie B 2018

Spal
Spal
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Alessandria
Alessandria
11/20/2021Serie BSerie B · Round 13Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Spal48%
×Draw24%
Alessandria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
1.67
Alessandria
1.21

Spal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 19 away

creates per match

Spal
1.44
Alessandria
1.11

allows per match

Spal
1.31
Alessandria
1.89

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Alessandria+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Alessandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spal or draw
72%
Spal or Alessandria
76%
Draw or Alessandria
52%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
25%
Alessandria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
81%
Spal 2+ goals
50%
Spal 3+ goals
23%
Alessandria 1+ goals
70%
Alessandria 2+ goals
34%
Alessandria 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
63%
Alessandria (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

Alessandria away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.44 + Alessandria defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alessandria attack 1.11 + Spal defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spal scores more
48%
level
24%
Alessandria scores more
28%

Spal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Spal 2–3 Alessandria

Alessandria beat Spal 3-2 in Serie B on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.