Alessandria 2–2 Spal: Result & Stats | Serie B

Alessandria

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spal

M. Marconi 81'

S. Corazza 18'

F. Viviani 50'

E. Capradossi 32'

4/2/2022

Serie B · Round 32Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Alessandria35%

×Draw30%

Spal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlessandriaExpected goals in this matchSpal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

Alessandria

1.05

Spal

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 59 away

0.84

creates per match

0.90

1.21

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Alessandria

0.84

Spal

0.90

allows per match

Alessandria

1.21

Spal

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alessandria+0.00on par

Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alessandria ↓

Spal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alessandria or draw

65%

Alessandria or Spal

70%

Draw or Spal

65%

Winning margin

Alessandria wins by 2+

14%

Spal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Alessandria 1+ goals

65%

Alessandria 2+ goals

28%

Alessandria 3+ goals

9%

Spal 1+ goals

65%

Spal 2+ goals

28%

Spal 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Alessandria (draw refunded)

50%

Spal (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alessandria at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Spal away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alessandria attack 0.84 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.05

Spal attack 0.90 + Alessandria defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Alessandria scores more

35%

level

30%

Spal scores more

35%

Alessandria at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Alessandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

F. Viviani

Spal · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

S. Corazza

30'

Marco Pinato

32'

E. Capradossi↳ F. Viviani

49'

Abou Ba

50'

F. Viviani

53'

Luca Vido

57'

M. Marconi← S. Corazza

57'

F. Mattiello← G. Lunetta

63'

Lorenzo Colombo

68'

A. Kolaj← D. Fabbrini

68'

S. Palombi← A. Ba

69'

J. Da Riva← M. Mancosu

69'

F. Melchiorri← L. Colombo

69'

S. Esposito← F. Viviani

74'

Niccolò Zanellato

76'

E. Pierozzi← M. Mustacchio

81'

M. Marconi

82'

Michele Marconi

86'

E. Latte Lath← M. Pinato

86'

L. Mora← L. Vido

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlessandriaSpal

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots14

5Corners5

12Fouls23

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target6

5Off Target7

0Blocked1

5Inside Box9

2Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

280Total Passes361

165Accurate Passes251

59%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls23

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3

Serie B: Alessandria 2–2 Spal

Alessandria and Spal drew 2-2 in Serie B on April 2, 2022.

Goals: S. Corazza (18'), E. Capradossi (32'), F. Viviani (50'), M. Marconi (81').

Spal controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Alessandria.

Alessandria vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Alessandria 2–2 Spal