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SPAL U19 vs Roma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

SPAL U19
SPAL U19
FT
1 – 0
Roma U19
Roma U19
1/25/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SPAL U1929%
×Draw24%
Roma U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SPAL U19
1.31
Roma U19
1.73

Roma U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 68 away

creates per match

SPAL U19
1.19
Roma U19
1.93

allows per match

SPAL U19
1.53
Roma U19
1.43

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par
Roma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Roma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw
53%
SPAL U19 or Roma U19
76%
Draw or Roma U19
71%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+
12%
Roma U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals
73%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
38%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
14%
Roma U19 1+ goals
82%
Roma U19 2+ goals
52%
Roma U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
38%
Roma U19 (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Roma U19 away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.19 + Roma U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

Roma U19 attack 1.93 + SPAL U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SPAL U19 scores more
29%
level
24%
Roma U19 scores more
47%

Roma U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: SPAL U19 1–0 Roma U19

SPAL U19 beat Roma U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 25, 2021.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri in Ferrara.