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Roma U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Roma U19
Roma U19
FT
0 – 0
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
5/8/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Stadio Tre Fontane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Roma U1958%
×Draw21%
SPAL U1921%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roma U19
2.05
SPAL U19
1.14

Roma U19 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 32 away

creates per match

Roma U19
2.10
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Roma U19
1.06
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Roma U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roma U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Roma U19 or draw
79%
Roma U19 or SPAL U19
79%
Draw or SPAL U19
42%

Winning margin

Roma U19 wins by 2+
35%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Roma U19 1+ goals
87%
Roma U19 2+ goals
61%
Roma U19 3+ goals
33%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
68%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
32%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Roma U19 (draw refunded)
74%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roma U19 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roma U19 attack 2.10 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Roma U19 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Roma U19 scores more
58%
level
21%
SPAL U19 scores more
21%

Roma U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Roma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Roma U19 0–0 SPAL U19

Roma U19 and SPAL U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Tre Fontane in Roma.