SPAL U19 vs Milan U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 32+ matches
SPAL U1936%
Milan U1937%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 32 home / 67 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SPAL U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches
Milan U19 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SPAL U19 attack 1.19 + Milan U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31
Milan U19 attack 1.13 + SPAL U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Milan U19 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Sampdoria U19
Internazionale U19
Juventus U19
Roma U19
Atalanta U19
Empoli U19SPAL U19
Sassuolo U19
Genoa U19Milan U19
Cagliari U19
Fiorentina U19
Torino U19
Bologna U19
Lazio U19
Ascoli U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SPAL U19 host Milan U19 on Saturday, 15 May 2021 at 09:00. The match is part of the Campionato Primavera - 1 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: SPAL U19 vs Milan U19
Milan U19 beat SPAL U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 15, 2021.
Goals: G. El Hilali (83').
The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.