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Milan U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Milan U19
Milan U19
FT
2 – 0
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
G. Olzer 90+3'
R. Tonin 70'
1/30/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 8Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Milan U1950%
×Draw22%
SPAL U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milan U19
1.90
SPAL U19
1.34

Milan U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 32 away

creates per match

Milan U19
1.79
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Milan U19
1.47
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Milan U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Milan U19 or draw
73%
Milan U19 or SPAL U19
78%
Draw or SPAL U19
50%

Winning margin

Milan U19 wins by 2+
28%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Milan U19 1+ goals
85%
Milan U19 2+ goals
56%
Milan U19 3+ goals
29%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
74%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
39%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Milan U19 (draw refunded)
65%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U19 at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.47 · 66 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U19 attack 1.79 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Milan U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Milan U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
SPAL U19 scores more
27%

Milan U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
A. Brambilla
33'
N. Michelis
68'
M. Yabre
70'
R. Tonin
82'
L. Stanga
88'
K. Bright← K. Bright
88'
G. El Hilali← G. El Hilali
90+3'
G. Olzer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milan U19 vs SPAL U19

Milan U19 beat SPAL U19 2-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 30, 2021.

Goals: R. Tonin (70'), G. Olzer (90+3').

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Peppino Vismara in Milano.