SPAL U19 1–1 Cagliari U19: Result & Stats

SPAL U19

FT

1 – 1

Cagliari U19

L. Sperti 85'

S. Yanken 57'

9/26/2021

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SPAL U1939%

×Draw25%

Cagliari U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPAL U19Expected goals in this matchCagliari U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.45

SPAL U19

1.50

Cagliari U19

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 66 away

1.19

creates per match

1.36

1.53

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

SPAL U19

1.19

Cagliari U19

1.36

allows per match

SPAL U19

1.53

Cagliari U19

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par

Cagliari U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Cagliari U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw

63%

SPAL U19 or Cagliari U19

75%

Draw or Cagliari U19

61%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+

19%

Cagliari U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals

78%

SPAL U19 2+ goals

44%

SPAL U19 3+ goals

19%

Cagliari U19 1+ goals

77%

Cagliari U19 2+ goals

42%

Cagliari U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Cagliari U19 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.19 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cagliari U19 attack 1.36 + SPAL U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

SPAL U19 scores more

39%

level

25%

Cagliari U19 scores more

37%

SPAL U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "SPAL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

L. Sperti← L. Sperti

45'

B. Conti

57'

S. Yanken

58'

L. D'Andrea← L. D'Andrea

63'

C. Kourfalidis

67'

I. Delpupo

72'

G. Schirru← G. Schirru

72'

N. Cavuoti← N. Cavuoti

78'

Y. Fahad← Y. Fahad

79'

G. Gineitis← G. Gineitis

79'

P. Saio← A. Pinotti

79'

M. Masala← M. Masala

79'

A. Vinciguerra← A. Vinciguerra

85'

L. Sperti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff