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Cagliari U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Cagliari U19
Cagliari U19
FT
3 – 1
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
R. Kouda 70'
Z. Luvumbo 28'
L. Tramoni 20'
M. E. Ellertsson 45+3'
5/30/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 26Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Cagliari U1953%
×Draw22%
SPAL U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cagliari U19
1.93
SPAL U19
1.26

Cagliari U19 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 32 away

creates per match

Cagliari U19
1.85
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Cagliari U19
1.30
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Cagliari U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cagliari U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cagliari U19 or draw
75%
Cagliari U19 or SPAL U19
78%
Draw or SPAL U19
47%

Winning margin

Cagliari U19 wins by 2+
30%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cagliari U19 1+ goals
85%
Cagliari U19 2+ goals
57%
Cagliari U19 3+ goals
30%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
72%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
36%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cagliari U19 (draw refunded)
68%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cagliari U19 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cagliari U19 attack 1.85 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Cagliari U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cagliari U19 scores more
53%
level
22%
SPAL U19 scores more
25%

Cagliari U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cagliari U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
L. Tramoni
28'
Z. Luvumbo
45+3'
M. E. Ellertsson
46'
G. Tunjov← C. Attys
51'
Z. Luvumbo
55'
G. Contini
69'
S. Colyn← S. Colyn
69'
R. Mamas← R. Mamas
70'
R. Kouda
73'
N. Cavuoti
88'
Z. Luvumbo← A. Vinciguerra
90+3'
M. Yabre
90+3'
M. Masala

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cagliari U19 3 – 1 SPAL U19

Cagliari U19 beat SPAL U19 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on May 30, 2021.

Goals: L. Tramoni (20'), Z. Luvumbo (28'), M. E. Ellertsson (45+3'), R. Kouda (70').

The match was played at Campioni d'Italia 1969/70 Asseminello in Cagliari.