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SPAL U19 vs Brescia U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

SPAL U19
SPAL U19
FT
4 – 1
Brescia U19
Brescia U19
10/21/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 5Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SPAL U1943%
×Draw24%
Brescia U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SPAL U19
1.59
Brescia U19
1.34

SPAL U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 85 away

creates per match

SPAL U19
1.40
Brescia U19
1.61

allows per match

SPAL U19
1.07
Brescia U19
1.79

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par
Brescia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Brescia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw
68%
SPAL U19 or Brescia U19
76%
Draw or Brescia U19
57%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+
22%
Brescia U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals
80%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
47%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
21%
Brescia U19 1+ goals
74%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
39%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Brescia U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.79 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.40 + Brescia U19 defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.59

Brescia U19 attack 1.61 + SPAL U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SPAL U19 scores more
43%
level
24%
Brescia U19 scores more
32%

SPAL U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SPAL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SPAL U19 vs Brescia U19

SPAL U19 beat Brescia U19 4-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri in Ferrara.