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Brescia U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Brescia U19
Brescia U19
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
11/9/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 8Centro Sportivo San Filippo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Brescia U1938%
×Draw26%
SPAL U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brescia U19
1.36
SPAL U19
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 46 away

creates per match

Brescia U19
1.45
SPAL U19
1.35

allows per match

Brescia U19
1.32
SPAL U19
1.28

finishing

Brescia U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brescia U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Brescia U19 or draw
64%
Brescia U19 or SPAL U19
74%
Draw or SPAL U19
62%

Winning margin

Brescia U19 wins by 2+
17%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Brescia U19 1+ goals
74%
Brescia U19 2+ goals
39%
Brescia U19 3+ goals
16%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
74%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
38%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Brescia U19 (draw refunded)
51%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brescia U19 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brescia U19 attack 1.45 + SPAL U19 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

SPAL U19 attack 1.35 + Brescia U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Brescia U19 scores more
38%
level
26%
SPAL U19 scores more
36%

Brescia U19 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Brescia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Brescia U19 0–1 SPAL U19

SPAL U19 beat Brescia U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo San Filippo in Brescia.