SPAL U19 2–2 Bologna U19: Result & Stats

SPAL U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Bologna U19

3/5/2022

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 22Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SPAL U1941%

×Draw25%

Bologna U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPAL U19Expected goals in this matchBologna U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.39

SPAL U19

1.53

Bologna U19

1.39

SPAL U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 67 away

1.19

creates per match

1.24

1.53

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

SPAL U19

1.19

Bologna U19

1.24

allows per match

SPAL U19

1.53

Bologna U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par

Bologna U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Bologna U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw

65%

SPAL U19 or Bologna U19

75%

Draw or Bologna U19

59%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+

20%

Bologna U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals

78%

SPAL U19 2+ goals

45%

SPAL U19 3+ goals

20%

Bologna U19 1+ goals

75%

Bologna U19 2+ goals

40%

Bologna U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Bologna U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.88 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.19 + Bologna U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bologna U19 attack 1.24 + SPAL U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

SPAL U19 scores more

41%

level

25%

Bologna U19 scores more

35%

SPAL U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SPAL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff