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Bologna U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U19
Bologna U19
FT
1 – 2
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
10/19/2020Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 4Centro Sportivo Biavato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Bologna U1945%
×Draw23%
SPAL U1932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U19
1.72
SPAL U19
1.41

Bologna U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 32 away

creates per match

Bologna U19
1.44
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Bologna U19
1.59
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Bologna U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bologna U19 or draw
68%
Bologna U19 or SPAL U19
77%
Draw or SPAL U19
55%

Winning margin

Bologna U19 wins by 2+
24%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bologna U19 1+ goals
82%
Bologna U19 2+ goals
51%
Bologna U19 3+ goals
25%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
76%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
41%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bologna U19 (draw refunded)
59%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U19 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U19 attack 1.44 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Bologna U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bologna U19 scores more
45%
level
23%
SPAL U19 scores more
32%

Bologna U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bologna U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna U19 vs SPAL U19

SPAL U19 beat Bologna U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 19, 2020.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Biavato in Bologna.