Spakenburg 3–4 Kozakken Boys: Result & Stats

Spakenburg

FT

3 – 4

HT: 3 – 1

Kozakken Boys

3/21/2026

Tweede Divisie · Round 27Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Spakenburg52%

×Draw23%

Kozakken Boys25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpakenburgExpected goals in this matchKozakken Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.21

Spakenburg

1.86

Kozakken Boys

1.21

Spakenburg creates 54% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 87 away

2.10

creates per match

1.17

1.26

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Spakenburg

2.10

Kozakken Boys

1.17

allows per match

Spakenburg

1.26

Kozakken Boys

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spakenburg+0.00on par

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spakenburg ↓

Kozakken Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Spakenburg or draw

75%

Spakenburg or Kozakken Boys

77%

Draw or Kozakken Boys

48%

Winning margin

Spakenburg wins by 2+

30%

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spakenburg 1+ goals

84%

Spakenburg 2+ goals

55%

Spakenburg 3+ goals

28%

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

70%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

34%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spakenburg (draw refunded)

68%

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spakenburg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spakenburg attack 2.10 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kozakken Boys attack 1.17 + Spakenburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spakenburg scores more

52%

level

23%

Kozakken Boys scores more

25%

Spakenburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff