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Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg — Tweede Divisie 2019

Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spakenburg
Spakenburg
10/18/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 10De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kozakken Boys38%
×Draw23%
Spakenburg40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozakken Boys
1.70
Spakenburg
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 101 away

creates per match

Kozakken Boys
1.58
Spakenburg
1.79

allows per match

Kozakken Boys
1.70
Spakenburg
1.82

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par
Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

Spakenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw
60%
Kozakken Boys or Spakenburg
77%
Draw or Spakenburg
62%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
19%
Spakenburg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
82%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
51%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
24%
Spakenburg 1+ goals
83%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
52%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
49%
Spakenburg (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.58 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more
38%
level
23%
Spakenburg scores more
40%

Spakenburg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozakken Boys vs Spakenburg

Spakenburg beat Kozakken Boys 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at De Zwaaier in Werkendam.