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Spakenburg vs Excelsior Maassluis — Tweede Divisie 2019

Spakenburg
Spakenburg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
9/13/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 5Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Spakenburg57%
×Draw21%
Excelsior Maassluis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spakenburg
2.09
Excelsior Maassluis
1.21

Spakenburg creates 73% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 104 away

creates per match

Spakenburg
2.10
Excelsior Maassluis
1.16

allows per match

Spakenburg
1.26
Excelsior Maassluis
2.09

finishing

Spakenburg+0.00on par
Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spakenburg ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spakenburg or draw
78%
Spakenburg or Excelsior Maassluis
79%
Draw or Excelsior Maassluis
43%

Winning margin

Spakenburg wins by 2+
35%
Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Spakenburg 1+ goals
88%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
62%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
34%
Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
70%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
34%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spakenburg (draw refunded)
73%
Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spakenburg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spakenburg attack 2.10 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.09

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + Spakenburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spakenburg scores more
57%
level
21%
Excelsior Maassluis scores more
22%

Spakenburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spakenburg vs Excelsior Maassluis

Spakenburg beat Excelsior Maassluis 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on September 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Spakenburg.