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Excelsior Maassluis vs Spakenburg — Tweede Divisie 2019

Excelsior Maassluis
Excelsior Maassluis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Spakenburg
Spakenburg
2/24/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 23Sportpark Dijkpolder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Excelsior Maassluis40%
×Draw23%
Spakenburg37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Excelsior Maassluis
1.64
Spakenburg
1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 101 away

creates per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.46
Spakenburg
1.79

allows per match

Excelsior Maassluis
1.34
Spakenburg
1.82

finishing

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par
Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Excelsior Maassluis ↓

Spakenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Excelsior Maassluis or draw
63%
Excelsior Maassluis or Spakenburg
77%
Draw or Spakenburg
60%

Winning margin

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+
20%
Spakenburg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals
81%
Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals
49%
Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals
23%
Spakenburg 1+ goals
79%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
46%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)
52%
Spakenburg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Excelsior Maassluis at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 104 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.46 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Excelsior Maassluis scores more
40%
level
23%
Spakenburg scores more
37%

Excelsior Maassluis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Excelsior Maassluis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Excelsior Maassluis 1–1 Spakenburg

Excelsior Maassluis and Spakenburg drew 1-1 in Tweede Divisie on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Dijkpolder in Maassluis.