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Spain vs Malta — Euro Championship 2024

Spain
Spain
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Malta
Malta
Navas 85'
Gerard Moreno 71'
Daniel Olmo 69'
Pablo Sarabia 63'
Pau Torres 62'
Santi Cazorla 41'
Morata 23'
11/15/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 9Estadio Ramón de Carranza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spain90%
×Draw9%
Malta1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
2.72
Malta
0.18

Spain creates 1411% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Spain
2.64
Malta
0.00

allows per match

Spain
0.36
Malta
2.80

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Malta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Malta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–13%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–021%
2–14%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–019%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–013%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spain or draw
99%
Spain or Malta
91%
Draw or Malta
10%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
71%
Malta wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
93%
Spain 2+ goals
75%
Spain 3+ goals
50%
Malta 1+ goals
16%
Malta 2+ goals
1%
Malta 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
98%
Malta (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
13%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Malta away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.64 + Malta defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.72

Malta attack 0.00 + Spain defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 90%?"

Spain scores more
90%
level
9%
Malta scores more
1%

Spain at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Thiago AlcântaraSpainSpain · M
10.0

Match Events

23'
Morata↳ Gerard Moreno
33'
K. Micallef← J. Corbalan
41'
Santi Cazorla↳ Gerard Moreno
53'
Paco Alcácer← Santi Cazorla
61'
Pau Torres← Sergio Ramos
62'
Pau Torres↳ Paco Alcácer
63'
T. Caruana← R. Muscat
63'
Pablo Sarabia↳ Gerard Moreno
66'
Daniel Olmo← Morata
69'
Daniel Olmo↳ Thiago Alcântara
71'
Gerard Moreno↳ Juan Bernat
76'
J. Grech← J. Pisani
85'
Navas↳ Thiago Alcântara

Possession

79%Spain

Shots

32Spain

Pass accuracy

56%Spain

Statistics

SpainMalta
Overview
79%Possession21%
32Total Shots1
15Corners0
4Fouls7
Shots
32Total Shots1
15On Target0
8Off Target1
9Blocked0
27Inside Box0
5Outside Box1
Passing
79%Possession21%
904Total Passes240
836Accurate Passes172
92%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
4Fouls7
6Offsides0

Match Recap: Spain vs Malta

Spain beat Malta 7-0 in Euro Championship on November 15, 2019.

Goals: Morata (23'), Santi Cazorla (41'), Pau Torres (62'), Pablo Sarabia (63'), Daniel Olmo (69'), Gerard Moreno (71'), Navas (85').

Spain controlled possession (79%) and registered 32 shots to 1.

The match was played at Estadio Ramón de Carranza in Cádiz.