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Malta vs Spain — Euro Championship 2024

Malta
Malta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spain
Spain
Morata 73', 31'
3/26/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Malta6%
×Draw14%
Spain80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
0.55
Spain
2.49

Spain creates 353% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Malta
0.60
Spain
2.38

allows per match

Malta
2.60
Spain
0.50

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Spain+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Spain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–215%
0–312%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Malta or draw
20%
Malta or Spain
86%
Draw or Spain
94%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
1%
Spain wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
42%
Malta 2+ goals
11%
Malta 3+ goals
2%
Spain 1+ goals
92%
Spain 2+ goals
71%
Spain 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
7%
Spain (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Spain away — creates 2.38, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 0.60 + Spain defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.55

Spain attack 2.38 + Malta defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Malta scores more
6%
level
14%
Spain scores more
80%

Spain at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
MorataSpainSpain · F
8.7

Match Events

31'
Morata↳ Hermoso
56'
Muniain← Juan Bernat
65'
R. Muscat← J. Mbong
65'
Navas← Saúl
70'
M. Mifsud← J. Mintoff
72'
Juan Corbalan
73'
Morata↳ Navas
79'
Rodrigo← Morata
85'
K. Micallef← J. Caruana

Possession

16%Malta

Shots

2Malta

Pass accuracy

39%Malta

Statistics

MaltaSpain
Overview
16%Possession84%
2Total Shots23
0Corners7
10Fouls7
Shots
2Total Shots23
1On Target7
1Off Target11
0Blocked5
0Inside Box12
2Outside Box11
Passing
16%Possession84%
191Total Passes949
113Accurate Passes874
59%Pass Accuracy92%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Euro Championship: Malta 0–2 Spain

Spain beat Malta 2-0 in Euro Championship on March 26, 2019.

Goals: Morata (31', 73').

Spain controlled possession (84%) and registered 23 shots to 2.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.