Spain U19 W 3–2 Netherlands U19 W: Result & Stats

Spain U19 W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Netherlands U19 W

C. Segura 57'

A. Cerrato 45', 32'

E. Oude Elberink 43'

T. Tiebie 19'

2/23/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U19 W66%

×Draw18%

Netherlands U19 W17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19 WExpected goals in this matchNetherlands U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.21

Spain U19 W

2.54

Netherlands U19 W

1.21

Spain U19 W creates 110% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

2.33

creates per match

1.75

0.67

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Spain U19 W

2.33

Netherlands U19 W

1.75

allows per match

Spain U19 W

0.67

Netherlands U19 W

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19 W+0.00on par

Netherlands U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 W ↓

Netherlands U19 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Spain U19 W or draw

83%

Spain U19 W or Netherlands U19 W

82%

Draw or Netherlands U19 W

34%

Winning margin

Spain U19 W wins by 2+

44%

Netherlands U19 W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spain U19 W 1+ goals

92%

Spain U19 W 2+ goals

72%

Spain U19 W 3+ goals

46%

Netherlands U19 W 1+ goals

70%

Netherlands U19 W 2+ goals

34%

Netherlands U19 W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 W (draw refunded)

80%

Netherlands U19 W (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Netherlands U19 W away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 W attack 2.33 + Netherlands U19 W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.54

Netherlands U19 W attack 1.75 + Spain U19 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Spain U19 W scores more

66%

level

18%

Netherlands U19 W scores more

17%

Spain U19 W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spain U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

32'

43'

45'

57'

Spain

Netherlands

16

Booms

12

Koopman

13

⚽

14

15

17

18

19

20

21

22

13

2

3

4

6

8

16

17

19

⚽2

Cerrato

21

⚽

Segura

22

Casquero

Spain U19 W substitutes

11Agote15Gurtubay23Vega5Amaya7Bejarano9Marisa10Libran12Camara14Arques18Santos24Agirrezabala

Manager: Roos Kwakkenbos

Netherlands U19 W substitutes

1Vliet23Copier2Rademaker3Chibani4Weerelts5Weiman6Uden7Zuidberg8Kemper9Elberink10Hensbergen11Ivens