Netherlands U19 W 1–0 Spain U19 W: Result & Stats

Netherlands U19 W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spain U19 W

Z. Zuidberg 12'

6/18/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Women · Group Stage - 2Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Netherlands U19 W26%

×Draw29%

Spain U19 W46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Netherlands U19 WExpected goals in this matchSpain U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.28

Netherlands U19 W

0.88

Spain U19 W

1.28

Spain U19 W creates 45% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

1.14

creates per match

1.85

0.71

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Netherlands U19 W

1.14

Spain U19 W

1.85

allows per match

Netherlands U19 W

0.71

Spain U19 W

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Netherlands U19 W+0.00on par

Spain U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Netherlands U19 W ↓

Spain U19 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Netherlands U19 W or draw

54%

Netherlands U19 W or Spain U19 W

71%

Draw or Spain U19 W

74%

Winning margin

Netherlands U19 W wins by 2+

9%

Spain U19 W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Netherlands U19 W 1+ goals

59%

Netherlands U19 W 2+ goals

22%

Netherlands U19 W 3+ goals

6%

Spain U19 W 1+ goals

72%

Spain U19 W 2+ goals

37%

Spain U19 W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Netherlands U19 W (draw refunded)

36%

Spain U19 W (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Netherlands U19 W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Spain U19 W away — creates 1.85, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Netherlands U19 W attack 1.14 + Spain U19 W defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.88

Spain U19 W attack 1.85 + Netherlands U19 W defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Netherlands U19 W scores more

26%

level

29%

Spain U19 W scores more

46%

Spain U19 W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spain U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Z. Zuidberg↳ S. Proost

42'

J. van Uden← S. Proost

44'

C. Libran

46'

M. van Koppen← Z. Zuidberg

53'

J. Van Uden

59'

P. ComendadorMissed penalty

60'

E. Oude Elberink

60'

Emma Moreno← Noemí Bejarano

62'

M. van Koppen

67'

Ainoa Gómez← Cristina Librán

67'

Marisa García← Alba Cerrato

68'

A. Agirrezabala

79'

K. Koopman← L. Rademaker

79'

X. Kip← E. Oude Elberink

89'

Celia Segura← Paula Comendador

90'

S. van Vugt← J. van Hensbergen

Netherlands

Spain

13

Arrula

7

▼

22

6

12

5

16

10

▼

Librán

19

▼

Cerrato

11

Agote

20

▼

Comendado

1

Vliet

5

Weiman

2

▼

8

3

4

17

⚽

▼

Zuidberg

14

A

▼

Proost

9

▼

Elberink

10

▼

Hensberge

11

Egmond

Manager: Roos Kwakkenbos

42'▲J. van Uden←▼S. Proost

46'▲M. van Koppen←▼Z. Zuidberg

79'▲K. Koopman←▼L. Rademaker

79'▲X. Kip←▼E. Oude Elberink

90'▲S. van Vugt←▼J. van Hensbergen

Netherlands U19 W substitutes

18Vugt15Koopman20Kip19Koppen6Uden16Booms12Groot13Heij

Manager: Francisco Javier Lerga Garayoa

60'▲Emma Moreno←▼Noemí Bejarano

67'▲Ainoa Gómez←▼Cristina Librán

67'▲Marisa García←▼Alba Cerrato

89'▲Celia Segura←▼Paula Comendador

Spain U19 W substitutes

21Segura8Gómez9García17Moreno1López14Arques18Gurtubay3Llorella4Gálvez

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 W vs Spain U19 W

Netherlands U19 W beat Spain U19 W 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Women on June 18, 2025.

Goals: Z. Zuidberg (12').

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.

Netherlands U19 W vs Spain U19 W — UEFA U19 Championship - Women 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Netherlands U19 W vs Spain U19 W