Spain U19 2–0 Germany U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Germany U19

M. Rivas 48'

H. Lopez 44'

7/11/2026

UEFA U19 Championship · FinalRacecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spain U1953%

×Draw24%

Germany U1923%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchGermany U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.06

Spain U19

1.74

Germany U19

1.06

Spain U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.19

creates per match

1.57

0.56

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Spain U19

2.19

Germany U19

1.57

allows per match

Spain U19

0.56

Germany U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Germany U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

77%

Spain U19 or Germany U19

76%

Draw or Germany U19

47%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

29%

Germany U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

82%

Spain U19 2+ goals

52%

Spain U19 3+ goals

25%

Germany U19 1+ goals

65%

Germany U19 2+ goals

29%

Germany U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Germany U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 2.19 + Germany U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.74

Germany U19 attack 1.57 + Spain U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spain U19 scores more

53%

level

24%

Germany U19 scores more

23%

Spain U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

H. Lopez

48'

M. Rivas↳ D. Yanez

59'

J. Fields← M. Reimers

60'

64'

64'

64'

64'

67'

73'

A. Antanon← Q. Junyent

73'

D. A. Zarate Hidalgo← X. Espart

88'

A. Rodriguez← T. Pitarch

90+2'

A. Antanon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Germany U19

Spain U19 beat Germany U19 2-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 11, 2026.

Goals: H. Lopez (44'), M. Rivas (48').

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.

Spain U19 vs Germany U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Germany U19