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Spain U19 vs Germany U19 — UEFA U19 Championship 2019

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Germany U19
Germany U19
J. Morante 75'
O. Diallo 54'
S. Esteban 31', 20'
7/4/2026UEFA U19 ChampionshipUEFA U19 Championship · Group StageCentral Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spain U1953%
×Draw24%
Germany U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
1.70
Germany U19
1.04

Spain U19 creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spain U19
2.11
Germany U19
1.57

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Germany U19
1.29

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Germany U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Germany U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
77%
Spain U19 or Germany U19
76%
Draw or Germany U19
47%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
29%
Germany U19 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
82%
Spain U19 2+ goals
51%
Spain U19 3+ goals
24%
Germany U19 1+ goals
65%
Germany U19 2+ goals
28%
Germany U19 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
69%
Germany U19 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.50 · 18 matches

Germany U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 2.11 + Germany U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.70

Germany U19 attack 1.57 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Spain U19 scores more
53%
level
24%
Germany U19 scores more
23%

Spain U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
E. Kamga
20'
S. Esteban↳ J. Salinas
22'
Q. Junyent
28'
L. Engelns
31'
S. Esteban↳ Q. Junyent
42'
J. Salinas
46'
X. Espart← Q. Junyent
54'
O. Diallo↳ J. Salinas
56'
B. Nink← B. Mamuzah Lum
62'
D. Yanez← O. Diallo
62'
M. Rivas← J. Salinas
66'
J. Morante← T. Pitarch
69'
T. Etcibasi
75'
J. Morante↳ D. Yanez
80'
J. Fortea← Buba Sangare
87'
T. Poller
90'
J. Navarro Jimenez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U19 vs Germany U19

Spain U19 beat Germany U19 4-0 in UEFA U19 Championship on July 4, 2026.

Goals: S. Esteban (20', 31'), O. Diallo (54'), J. Morante (75').

The match was played at Central Park in Denbigh.