Spain U19 2–2 Austria U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Austria U19

Ilias Akhomach 22'

Ricard Artero 13'

B. Kanurić 68'

P. Wydra 48'

3/23/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spain U1962%

×Draw20%

Austria U1917%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchAustria U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.01

Spain U19

2.10

Austria U19

1.01

Spain U19 creates 108% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

3.31

creates per match

1.40

0.63

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Spain U19

3.31

Austria U19

1.40

allows per match

Spain U19

0.63

Austria U19

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Austria U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Austria U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

83%

Spain U19 or Austria U19

80%

Draw or Austria U19

38%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

39%

Austria U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

88%

Spain U19 2+ goals

62%

Spain U19 3+ goals

35%

Austria U19 1+ goals

64%

Austria U19 2+ goals

27%

Austria U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Austria U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.31 + Austria U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 2.10

Austria U19 attack 1.40 + Spain U19 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spain U19 scores more

62%

level

20%

Austria U19 scores more

17%

Spain U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Ricard Artero

22'

Ilias Akhomach

36'

E. Omic

46'

P. Fallmann← S. Kapsamer

48'

P. Wydra

61'

L. Querfeld

68'

B. Kanurić

76'

Alberto Moleiro← Ilias Akhomach

76'

Pablo Barrios← Ricard Artero

78'

J. Forst← N. Veratschnig

78'

J. Knollmüller← P. Wydra

82'

Carlos Álvarez← Loren Zúñiga

82'

Noel López← Nico Serrano

85'

J. Vazquez

85'

E. Metu← B. Kanurić

89'

L. Querfeld

89'

L. Querfeld

90+2'

J. Knollmuller

90+8'

N. Lopez

90'

N. Wiesinger← M. Huskovic

Spain

Austria

1

4

14

5

3

▼

Kapsamer

10

Jasic

18

⚽

▼

Kanurić

19

⚽

▼

Wydra

6

Omić

7

▼

Huskovic

22

▼

13

3

5

14

7

20

16

⚽

▼

Artero

2

Novoa

11

▼

Serrano

17

⚽

▼

Akhomach

9

▼

Zúñiga

Manager: Santi

76'▲Alberto Moleiro←▼Ilias Akhomach

76'▲Pablo Barrios←▼Ricard Artero

82'▲Carlos Álvarez←▼Loren Zúñiga

82'▲Noel López←▼Nico Serrano

Spain U19 substitutes

8Moleiro18Barrios10Álvarez19López1Iturbe12López4Marvel15Fernández

Manager: M. Scherb

46'▲P. Fallmann←▼S. Kapsamer

78'▲J. Forst←▼N. Veratschnig

78'▲J. Knollmüller←▼P. Wydra

85'▲E. Metu←▼B. Kanurić

90'▲N. Wiesinger←▼M. Huskovic

Austria U19 substitutes

17Fallmann9Forst13Knollmüller8Metu15Wiesinger16Michlmayr11Weixelbraun21Moser20Softic