Austria U19 1–2 Spain U19: Result & Stats

Austria U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Spain U19

Fran González 81' (OG)

Simo 63'

Siren Diao 10'

3/26/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Stadion Gornja Radgona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Austria U1939%

×Draw25%

Spain U1935%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria U19Expected goals in this matchSpain U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.36

Austria U19

1.45

Spain U19

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

2.06

creates per match

2.17

0.56

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Austria U19

2.06

Spain U19

2.17

allows per match

Austria U19

0.56

Spain U19

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria U19+0.00on par

Spain U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria U19 ↓

Spain U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Austria U19 or draw

65%

Austria U19 or Spain U19

75%

Draw or Spain U19

61%

Winning margin

Austria U19 wins by 2+

19%

Spain U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Austria U19 1+ goals

77%

Austria U19 2+ goals

42%

Austria U19 3+ goals

18%

Spain U19 1+ goals

74%

Spain U19 2+ goals

39%

Spain U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Austria U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Spain U19 away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria U19 attack 2.06 + Spain U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.45

Spain U19 attack 2.17 + Austria U19 defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austria U19 scores more

39%

level

25%

Spain U19 scores more

35%

Austria U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Siren Diao

23'

L. Pazourek

39'

D. Lechner

58'

J. Živković← D. Lechner

58'

T. Osmani← M. Neumann

59'

Marc Guiu← Siren Diao

59'

Peio Canales← Pol Fortuny

63'

Simo

73'

Cristian Perea← Julio Díaz

73'

Daniel Muñoz← Rayane Belaid

78'

F. Micheler← D. Madritsch

78'

M. Schablas← D. Puczka

78'

Z. Jánó← B. Scharner

81'

Fran GonzálezOwn goal

84'

M. Moswitzer

85'

D. Munoz

90+3'

Kevin Sánchez← David Mella

Austria

Spain

13

🥅

González

2

Fort

4

⚽

Simo

5

Gąsiorows

6

Hernández

20

▼

Belaid

3

▼

Díaz

10

▼

Fortuny

11

▼

Mella

7

Diao

17

⚽

▼

Diao

1

Jusić

18

Moswitzer

17

▼

Puczka

13

▼

Lechner

12

Trummer

6

▼

2

20

14

8

▼

Scharner

11

▼

Neumann

Manager: O. Lederer

58'▲J. Živković←▼D. Lechner

58'▲T. Osmani←▼M. Neumann

78'▲F. Micheler←▼D. Madritsch

78'▲M. Schablas←▼D. Puczka

78'▲Z. Jánó←▼B. Scharner

Austria U19 substitutes

16Živković10Osmani5Micheler4Schablas7Jánó21Göschl19Grgić

Manager: José Lana

59'▲Marc Guiu←▼Siren Diao

59'▲Peio Canales←▼Pol Fortuny

73'▲Cristian Perea←▼Julio Díaz

73'▲Daniel Muñoz←▼Rayane Belaid

90+3'▲Kevin Sánchez←▼David Mella

Spain U19 substitutes

15Guiu18Canales16Perea12Muñoz9Sánchez1Martín14Domínguez19Senhadji

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–2 Spain U19

Spain U19 beat Austria U19 2-1 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2024.

Goals: Siren Diao (10'), Simo (63'), Fran González (81' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Gornja Radgona in Gornja Radgona.

Austria U19 vs Spain U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Austria U19 1–2 Spain U19