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Spaeri vs Telavi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Spaeri
Spaeriadvanced
FT
4 – 3
HT: 4 – 0
Telavi
Telavi
9/18/2024David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Quarter-finalsStadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spaeri28%
×Draw27%
Telavi45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spaeri
1.05
Telavi
1.41

Telavi creates 34% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Spaeri
0.86
Telavi
1.25

allows per match

Spaeri
1.57
Telavi
1.25

finishing

Spaeri+0.00on par
Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spaeri ↓

Telavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Spaeri or draw
55%
Spaeri or Telavi
73%
Draw or Telavi
72%

Winning margin

Spaeri wins by 2+
11%
Telavi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Spaeri 1+ goals
65%
Spaeri 2+ goals
28%
Spaeri 3+ goals
9%
Telavi 1+ goals
76%
Telavi 2+ goals
41%
Telavi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Spaeri (draw refunded)
38%
Telavi (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spaeri at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Telavi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spaeri attack 0.86 + Telavi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Telavi attack 1.25 + Spaeri defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spaeri scores more
28%
level
27%
Telavi scores more
45%

Telavi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Telavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Spaeri 4–3 Telavi

Spaeri beat Telavi 4-3 in David Kipiani Cup on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.