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Spaeri vs Telavi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Spaeri
Spaeri
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Telavi
Telavi
12/6/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Relegation RoundStadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Spaeri47%
×Draw25%
Telavi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spaeri
1.56
Telavi
1.13

Spaeri creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 100 away

creates per match

Spaeri
1.55
Telavi
0.90

allows per match

Spaeri
1.36
Telavi
1.58

finishing

Spaeri+0.00on par
Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spaeri ↓

Telavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spaeri or draw
72%
Spaeri or Telavi
75%
Draw or Telavi
53%

Winning margin

Spaeri wins by 2+
24%
Telavi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spaeri 1+ goals
79%
Spaeri 2+ goals
46%
Spaeri 3+ goals
21%
Telavi 1+ goals
68%
Telavi 2+ goals
31%
Telavi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spaeri (draw refunded)
63%
Telavi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spaeri at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Telavi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spaeri attack 1.55 + Telavi defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.56

Telavi attack 0.90 + Spaeri defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spaeri scores more
47%
level
25%
Telavi scores more
28%

Spaeri at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spaeri vs Telavi

Spaeri and Telavi drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.