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Spaeri vs Kolkheti Poti — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Spaeri
Spaeriadvanced
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
8/20/2025David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 16Spaeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spaeri16%
×Draw21%
Kolkheti Poti62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spaeri
0.89
Kolkheti Poti
1.96

Kolkheti Poti creates 120% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Spaeri
0.86
Kolkheti Poti
2.36

allows per match

Spaeri
1.57
Kolkheti Poti
0.91

finishing

Spaeri+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spaeri ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spaeri or draw
38%
Spaeri or Kolkheti Poti
79%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
84%

Winning margin

Spaeri wins by 2+
5%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Spaeri 1+ goals
59%
Spaeri 2+ goals
22%
Spaeri 3+ goals
6%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
86%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
58%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Spaeri (draw refunded)
21%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spaeri at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spaeri attack 0.86 + Kolkheti Poti defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Kolkheti Poti attack 2.36 + Spaeri defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spaeri scores more
16%
level
21%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
62%

Kolkheti Poti at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

David Kipiani Cup: Spaeri 2–2 Kolkheti Poti

Spaeri and Kolkheti Poti drew 2-2 in David Kipiani Cup on August 20, 2025.

The match was played at Spaeri Stadium in Tbilisi.