Kolkheti Poti 2–0 Spaeri: Result & Stats

Kolkheti Poti

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Spaeri

9/2/2023

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 25Stadioni Pazisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kolkheti Poti39%

×Draw26%

Spaeri36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolkheti PotiExpected goals in this matchSpaeri

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.34

Kolkheti Poti

1.41

Spaeri

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 64 away

1.54

creates per match

1.53

1.15

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti

1.54

Spaeri

1.53

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti

1.15

Spaeri

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Spaeri+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Spaeri →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw

64%

Kolkheti Poti or Spaeri

74%

Draw or Spaeri

61%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+

18%

Spaeri wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals

76%

Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals

41%

Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals

17%

Spaeri 1+ goals

74%

Spaeri 2+ goals

39%

Spaeri 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)

52%

Spaeri (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

Spaeri away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.54 + Spaeri defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

Spaeri attack 1.53 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more

39%

level

26%

Spaeri scores more

36%

Kolkheti Poti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff