Sozopol 3–0 Sokol Markovo: Result & Stats

Sozopol

FT

3 – 0

Sokol Markovo

9/7/2019

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 6Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sozopol70%

×Draw18%

Sokol Markovo12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SozopolExpected goals in this matchSokol Markovo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.80

Sozopol

2.25

Sokol Markovo

0.80

Sozopol creates 181% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 98 away

2.06

creates per match

0.72

0.89

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Sozopol

2.06

Sokol Markovo

0.72

allows per match

Sozopol

0.89

Sokol Markovo

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Sokol Markovo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw

88%

Sozopol or Sokol Markovo

82%

Draw or Sokol Markovo

30%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+

46%

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals

89%

Sozopol 2+ goals

65%

Sozopol 3+ goals

39%

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

55%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

19%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)

85%

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Sokol Markovo away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.43 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Sokol Markovo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sokol Markovo attack 0.72 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sozopol scores more

70%

level

18%

Sokol Markovo scores more

12%

Sozopol at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff