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Sokol Markovo vs Sozopol — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
1 – 1
Sozopol
Sozopol
4/20/2019Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 27Stadion Sokol (Markovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Sokol Markovo39%
×Draw25%
Sozopol36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.48
Sozopol
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Sozopol
1.13

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Sozopol
1.29

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
64%
Sokol Markovo or Sozopol
75%
Draw or Sozopol
61%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
19%
Sozopol wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
77%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
43%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
19%
Sozopol 1+ goals
75%
Sozopol 2+ goals
41%
Sozopol 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
52%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sozopol attack 1.13 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
39%
level
25%
Sozopol scores more
36%

Sokol Markovo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sokol Markovo 1–1 Sozopol

Sokol Markovo and Sozopol drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol (Markovo).