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Sozopol vs Sekirovo Rakovski — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
2 – 0
Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
3/8/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 23Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sozopol64%
×Draw20%
Sekirovo Rakovski16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
2.06
Sekirovo Rakovski
0.91

Sozopol creates 126% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Sekirovo Rakovski
0.93

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Sekirovo Rakovski
2.07

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
84%
Sozopol or Sekirovo Rakovski
80%
Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski
36%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
40%
Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
87%
Sozopol 2+ goals
61%
Sozopol 3+ goals
34%
Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
60%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
23%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
80%
Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.06

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sozopol scores more
64%
level
20%
Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
16%

Sozopol at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sozopol vs Sekirovo Rakovski

Sozopol beat Sekirovo Rakovski 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.