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Sekirovo Rakovski vs Sozopol — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
FT
1 – 1
Sozopol
Sozopol
8/24/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 4Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski42%
×Draw26%
Sozopol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.42
Sozopol
1.20

Sekirovo Rakovski creates 18% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.55
Sozopol
1.13

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.27
Sozopol
1.29

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw
68%
Sekirovo Rakovski or Sozopol
74%
Draw or Sozopol
58%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
20%
Sozopol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
76%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
41%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
17%
Sozopol 1+ goals
70%
Sozopol 2+ goals
34%
Sozopol 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
57%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Sozopol attack 1.13 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
42%
level
26%
Sozopol scores more
32%

Sekirovo Rakovski at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sekirovo Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sekirovo Rakovski vs Sozopol

Sekirovo Rakovski and Sozopol drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Peter Parchevich in Rakovski.