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Sozopol vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sozopol
Sozopol
FT
3 – 1
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
4/12/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 29Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Sozopol57%
×Draw23%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sozopol
1.86
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.01

Sozopol creates 84% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sozopol
2.06
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Sozopol
0.89
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw
80%
Sozopol or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
77%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
43%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+
33%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals
84%
Sozopol 2+ goals
55%
Sozopol 3+ goals
28%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
64%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)
74%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.86

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sozopol scores more
57%
level
23%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
20%

Sozopol at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sozopol vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Sozopol beat Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Sozopol.