Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Sozopol — Third League - Southeast 2018

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sozopol
Sozopol
3/3/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II46%
×Draw26%
Sozopol29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.52
Sozopol
1.14

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 83 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.75
Sozopol
1.13

allows per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.15
Sozopol
1.29

finishing

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or draw
71%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II or Sozopol
74%
Draw or Sozopol
54%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
23%
Sozopol wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
78%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
45%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
20%
Sozopol 1+ goals
68%
Sozopol 2+ goals
32%
Sozopol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
62%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.15 · 92 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.75 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sozopol attack 1.13 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
46%
level
26%
Sozopol scores more
29%

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lokomotiv Plovdiv II vs Sozopol

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II and Sozopol drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.