Sozopol 2–2 Kariana Erden: Result & Stats

Sozopol

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kariana Erden

8/19/2020

Second League · Round 3Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sozopol42%

×Draw27%

Kariana Erden31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SozopolExpected goals in this matchKariana Erden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.11

Sozopol

1.36

Kariana Erden

1.11

Sozopol creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.31

creates per match

1.09

1.14

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Sozopol

1.31

Kariana Erden

1.09

allows per match

Sozopol

1.14

Kariana Erden

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par

Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

Kariana Erden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw

69%

Sozopol or Kariana Erden

73%

Draw or Kariana Erden

58%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+

20%

Kariana Erden wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals

74%

Sozopol 2+ goals

39%

Sozopol 3+ goals

16%

Kariana Erden 1+ goals

67%

Kariana Erden 2+ goals

30%

Kariana Erden 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)

58%

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 1.31 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Sozopol defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sozopol scores more

42%

level

27%

Kariana Erden scores more

31%

Sozopol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff