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Kariana Erden vs Sozopol — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
CANC
16:00
Sozopol
Sozopol
2/27/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Kariana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kariana Erden58%
×Draw24%
Sozopol18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.72
Sozopol
0.85

Kariana Erden creates 102% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 50 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Sozopol
0.76

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Sozopol
1.82

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
82%
Kariana Erden or Sozopol
76%
Draw or Sozopol
42%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
32%
Sozopol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
82%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
51%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
25%
Sozopol 1+ goals
57%
Sozopol 2+ goals
21%
Sozopol 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
76%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Sozopol away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Sozopol defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Sozopol attack 0.76 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
58%
level
24%
Sozopol scores more
18%

Kariana Erden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kariana Erden vs Sozopol — Match Preview

Kariana Erden face Sozopol on February 27, 2021 in this Second League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kariana Erden host Sozopol at Stadion Kariana.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.