Sozopol 7–1 FK Sliven: Result & Stats

Sozopol

FT

7 – 1

FK Sliven

9/2/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Sozopol78%

×Draw13%

FK Sliven9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SozopolExpected goals in this matchFK Sliven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.99

0.92

Sozopol

2.99

FK Sliven

0.92

Sozopol creates 225% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 38 away

2.06

creates per match

0.95

0.89

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Sozopol

2.06

FK Sliven

0.95

allows per match

Sozopol

0.89

FK Sliven

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sozopol+0.00on par

FK Sliven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sozopol ↓

FK Sliven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Sozopol or draw

91%

Sozopol or FK Sliven

87%

Draw or FK Sliven

22%

Winning margin

Sozopol wins by 2+

59%

FK Sliven wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Sozopol 1+ goals

95%

Sozopol 2+ goals

79%

Sozopol 3+ goals

56%

FK Sliven 1+ goals

60%

FK Sliven 2+ goals

23%

FK Sliven 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sozopol (draw refunded)

90%

FK Sliven (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sozopol at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.89 · 82 matches

FK Sliven away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sozopol attack 2.06 + FK Sliven defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 2.99

FK Sliven attack 0.95 + Sozopol defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Sozopol scores more

78%

level

13%

FK Sliven scores more

9%

Sozopol at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff