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FK Sliven vs Sozopol — Third League - Southeast 2018

FK Sliven
FK Sliven
FT
1 – 0
Sozopol
Sozopol
3/13/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

FK Sliven37%
×Draw24%
Sozopol38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sliven
1.48
Sozopol
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 83 away

creates per match

FK Sliven
1.68
Sozopol
1.13

allows per match

FK Sliven
1.87
Sozopol
1.29

finishing

FK Sliven+0.00on par
Sozopol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sliven ↓

Sozopol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FK Sliven or draw
62%
FK Sliven or Sozopol
76%
Draw or Sozopol
63%

Winning margin

FK Sliven wins by 2+
18%
Sozopol wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FK Sliven 1+ goals
77%
FK Sliven 2+ goals
43%
FK Sliven 3+ goals
19%
Sozopol 1+ goals
78%
Sozopol 2+ goals
44%
Sozopol 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FK Sliven (draw refunded)
49%
Sozopol (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sliven at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.87 · 38 matches

Sozopol away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.29 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sliven attack 1.68 + Sozopol defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sozopol attack 1.13 + FK Sliven defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FK Sliven scores more
37%
level
24%
Sozopol scores more
38%

Sozopol at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sozopol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sliven vs Sozopol

FK Sliven beat Sozopol 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Hadzhi Dimitar in Sliven.